Predictions of current and potential global invasion risk in populations of lionfish (Pterois volitans and Pterois miles) under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Populations of lionfish (Pterois volitans Linnaeus, 1758; Pterois miles Bennett, 1828) have expanded in the western Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea since their introduction and have become a biological invasive species. This invasion has impacted these regions' marine biodiversity, and their impact is expected to increase due to climate change. Our work evaluated the current and future potential risk of lionfish populations during climate change scenarios based on the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. MaxEnt was used to predict lionfish populations’ suitability for current conditions and under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for 2040–2050 and 2090–2100. Lionfish had an estimated range of physiological tolerances from 10–15 °C to 30 °C. According to our analyses, lionfish can live off the coasts of western Africa, the Americas, and the Mediterranean Sea. Under mild warming scenarios, suitable conditions for lionfish could expand to higher latitudes due to their high thermal range and salinity tolerance. Our models predicted that lionfish could reach the coasts of France, the United Kingdom, Uruguay, South Africa, and New Zealand, among other regions, under warming scenarios. However, under the warmest scenario (RCP 8.5), tropical latitudes may become less suitable for lionfish, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Our results may be useful for resource managers to foresee where to increase efforts in lionfish fisheries and consumption.